Africa Monitor Intelligence
Mozambique: Nyusi Pressured by Insurgent Advances in Cabo Delgado
In the evaluation of the Government of PR FILIPE NYUSI (FN), the main weakness denoted by the FDS are the lack of specialized personnel in the fight against terrorism, a fact not covered by the deployment of Wagner (Russia) experts and aerial means and, more recently, of South African mercenaries. Given the insufficiency, the formation of specialized troops is considered essential, together with the attempt to contain the conflict with recruits and private military companies.
Between 14-15.NOV there were several attacks calculated against positions of the Mozambican armed forces (FADM) in the region, understood as a way to determine their readiness. FADM's response was limited, focusing mainly on Mueda's defense.
Mueda is home to the FADM COC, but the situation is one of logistical disorganization, operational incoordination and a lack of morale. A soldier's monthly salary is around EUR 50 and the lack of example of senior officers is yet another demotivating factor, making defections common. The takeover of Mocímboa da Praia by the insurgents, who remain there, constitutes a precedent in the sense of the same power occurring in Mueda. Two military units were stationed in Mocímboa.
Independent sources estimate that the number of displaced people is already approaching 515,000 as a result of the abandonment of villages and destruction of housing. The districts of origin of the displaced are mainly Mocímboa da Praia, Macomia, Muidumbe, Quissanga, Palma, Ibo, Nangade. The worsening situation in Mueda will tend to generate an increase in the number of IDPs taking into account that the district concentrates c. 10% of the province's population (c. 140,000 inhabitants).
In operational terms, an occupation of Mueda by the insurgents would strongly affect the operational capacity of the FADM and would isolate Palma from the rest of the province, through the control of the means of communication by armed cells. READ MORE