Africa Monitor Intelligence
Angola: Slight Financial Relief from Rising Oil Prices
In addition to the general failure of the efforts to revive the economy by PR JOÃO LOURENÇO´s (JL) economic team, in the last 3 years, the prospects for 2021 are still negative due to the effect of the pandemic, with consequences on foreign investment.
The national business community is decapitalized and the state, impoverished and indebted, does not have the resources to lead it to launch public investments that generate jobs. The rate of external indebtedness already exceeds 100% (62% 4 years ago) and the magnitude of net international reserves is constantly depreciating (AM 1221).
Even before the current liquidity crisis, among leading circles of the Angolan business and banking sector predominated a negative perception of the performance of the Government's economic coordination team, led by MNJ and including VERA DAVES (VD) at the minister of Finance, which was internally contested by the drag of the economic and financial crisis (AM 1237). Dissatisfaction extends to influential circles of the MPLA, and MNJ has held the post mainly because of the close relationship with the first lady, ANA DIAS LOURENÇO (AM 1254).
The economic resuscitation efforts are hampered by instability in key business groups and the retraction of recent national investors in the retail and beverage industry - ISABEL dos SANTOS (IS), Gen. LEOPOLDINO FRAGOSO DO NASCIMENTO (“Dino”) - targets of lawsuits and seizure of assets. The end of corporate clusters that enjoyed protection from the previous Presidency does not imply the end of others, of better acceptance for the current leadership, nor the emergence of new protected groups, such as Omatapalo, in the infrastructure sector and, more recently, mining industry (AM 1233).
The difficulties / lack of capital of business groups and families also imply delays in the recapitalization processes of small and medium-sized banks (BNI, Finibanco) and the privatization of larger ones (BAI), inhibiting them from financing local investors. Also in the banking sector, the asset recovery strategy created instability in the shareholder structure (in the case of BFA, previously controlled by IS). READ MORE