Africa Monitor Intelligence
Mozambique: Nyusi Resists Pressure to Accept External Intervention in Cabo Delgado
In relation to FRELIMO's interior, FN seeks to balance itself between the different factions of the party-state, but never questioning the “nationalist” line of the former combatants, which includes some of his main supporters, led by Gen. ALBERTO CHIPANDE, who reject external interventions in the country. The official line is that it is up to the FADM to defend the sovereignty of the country, and that it has accepted foreign aid, namely military training actions from the USA and Portugal.
This position is called into question by the existence of several expatriates in the region now under attack and the potential for regional spread (Tanzania and South Africa) of security and humanitarian problems. In view of the incapacity of the FADM, there is the possibility of unilateral rescue actions on the part of several countries such as South Africa, France and the United Kingdom.
A forceful intervention by third countries in Cabo Delgado could precipitate the end of the second term of FN in the face of the political sensitivity of the matter and the interests installed within FRELIMO, with several of its leaders preferring the hiring of private military companies instead of resorting to requests for external support.
The 2022 FRELIMO Congress must designate the successor of FN, and internal lobbying actions by the various factions of the party are underway (AM 1265). The growing lack of control of the situation in Cabo Delgado has as a direct implication in creating an unfavorable internal environment towards FN, making it more difficult to affirm a candidate for the Presidency of the Republic favorable to his interests, or even a more consensual ally among the different FRELIMO “families”. READ MORE