Africa Monitor Intelligence
Angola: GDP Growth Promised by Government Unlikely
The Angolan oil production forecast for 2021 has been reduced by international investment houses. Previously, close to 1.2 million barrels/day, they are now around 1.1 million b/d. The downward revision of the forecast, c. 10% less, is based on production levels in the first few months of the year.
Lower oil production will lead to lower exports, so the real GDP forecast has also been revised downwards in benchmark analyses, some now pointing to a 1.5% drop. Other sectors of the non-oil economy, such as agriculture, have been affected by natural phenomena (drought) and pests (locusts and others). The industry, despite the effort to substitute imports for local production, does not show dynamism capable of offsetting the fall in the oil sector. READ MORE