Prices of goods and imports in general have increased, purchasing power has fallen, affecting consumption. The behavior of the economy for the rest of the year will be largely dictated by the evolution of the exchange rate, which may further inhibit consumption due to a continuous rise in prices, but also affect the growth of the non-oil economy. In a scenario in which the exchange rate remains at current levels, a recession is generally considered inevitable, with the oil sector stagnating and unemployment levels (about 30% currently) rising.

The non-oil sector is already under heavy pressure due to the currency depreciation and the impact of the partial removal of fuel subsidies. The main effect will be felt in the last half of the year, leading to stagnation and possible contraction throughout the year. READ MORE